Between Oct 1 2024 and Apr 1 2025, will US-election-related violence kill at least 100 Americans?
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12
Ṁ700
2025
14%
chance

This question asks whether, between the dates 2024-10-01 and 2025-04-01 inclusive, at least 100 American citizens will be killed by violent acts motivated by the US election. This can include both "private" (e.g. election-related assassinations) and "public" (e.g. mob) violence, as long as the dead are determined by major news and reference sources (e.g. NY Times, BBC, Wikipedia) to have been killed by people with US election related motivations. The total includes all American citizens, whether government officials, police officers, or ordinary private citizens.

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If you're interested in a multiple choice corollary of this market:

So MAGAtards killing noncitizens doesn't count?

For the narrow purpose of this market, no. If you think the probability is significantly different if non-citizen victims are included, that's a great reason to start another market, no?

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