Resolves YES if the (singularly) hottest day in August 2023 is August 3rd. Resolves NO otherwise (this includes ties). If the data becomes unavailable for any reason, it will resolve N/A if and only if there is no temperature data for August 3rd available prior to September 2. I will try to resolve this as soon as temperature data for the month is complete (which should be Sept. 1), but will wait no longer than the market closing time (Sept. 2) to resolve.
Will resolve according to: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/json/cfsr_world_t2_day.json
The graph here rounds to 2 decimal places (but I will not be using it for resolution):
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
For quick reference, you can search the JSON for: 17.073,17.038,17.064,17.070
17.070 being July 31.
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@parhizj Do you have a specific model or rationale for selecting August 3rd? I created a frequency graph just for fun. Although it doesn't significantly aid in understanding probability, I found it interesting. I'm not requesting you to reveal your information; I'm simply interested in the concept of your choice.
@DSh Now that the question is resolved I can answer: I had to pick a day to try to make it interesting but as you can see it is too difficult to do so from the July 6 question run by @PC , The mean temp usually decreases in time for August (CFSR), so early August also sounded good. From my comment below you can see a decreasing a trend of decreasing temps after Aug. 3 (based on decreasing anomalies in GEFS data), but the method is dubious as an analog to estimate CFSR numbers and I think the error greater than what is necessary to estimate which day would be the peak. Combined, though, I thought this might have a small chance of making this question fairly interesting. Sadly, it didn't work out that way 😂
https://manifold.markets/PC/will-july-6th-be-the-hottest-day-in#JrWf0kpwPJAFX0gFHx3lk
I've made it myself, hope you don't mind. Now you can bet on it yourself!
https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-august-2nd-be-the-hottest-day
Such an interesting question. @parhizj. Are you trading this market? Would hate to go against you. Also feel like you know something :)
@PC I won't ever trade in my markets. As to the second question, I don't "know" something. Meteorology/Climate is not my field.
I think this is reasonable since the temperatures are rising across the globe.
Especially since: https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1686485331539820545