Sigh - really wanted to open a large position in this market.

August 3rd is 17.106 C. August 2nd is 17.114. Resolving NO.

For those who have bet, I will try to check manifold daily in the morning (when I wake up) in order to resolve this as soon as possible. For example, if tomorrow morning the temperature for August 3rd is <= 17.114 C I will resolve NO then.

@parhizj Do you have a specific model or rationale for selecting August 3rd? I created a frequency graph just for fun. Although it doesn't significantly aid in understanding probability, I found it interesting. I'm not requesting you to reveal your information; I'm simply interested in the concept of your choice.

@DSh Now that the question is resolved I can answer: I had to pick a day to try to make it interesting but as you can see it is too difficult to do so from the July 6 question run by @PC , The mean temp usually decreases in time for August (CFSR), so early August also sounded good. From my comment below you can see a decreasing a trend of decreasing temps after Aug. 3 (based on decreasing anomalies in GEFS data), but the method is dubious as an analog to estimate CFSR numbers and I think the error greater than what is necessary to estimate which day would be the peak. Combined, though, I thought this might have a small chance of making this question fairly interesting. Sadly, it didn't work out that way 😂

https://manifold.markets/PC/will-july-6th-be-the-hottest-day-in#JrWf0kpwPJAFX0gFHx3lk

Will July 6th be the hottest day in Jul 2023?

Resolved YES. July 6th Obs Temp was 17.233°C Resolves NO if a day has a temperature above 17.233°C according to https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

@parhizj you can make a new one about August 2

@Odoacre It's an interesting idea but I think I will move on for now.

@parhizj

I've made it myself, hope you don't mind. Now you can bet on it yourself!

https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-august-2nd-be-the-hottest-day

Will August 2nd be the hottest day in Aug 2023?

50% chance. Resolves YES if the (singularly) hottest day in August 2023 is August 2nd. Resolves NO otherwise (this includes ties). If the data becomes unavailable for any reason. I will try to resolve this as soon as temperature data for the month is complete (which should be Sept. 1), but will wait no longer than the market closing time (Sept. 2) to resolve. Will resolve according to: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/json/cfsr_world_t2_day.json The graph here rounds to 2 decimal places (but I will not be using it for resolution): https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/ For quick reference, you can search the JSON for: 17.073,17.038,17.064,17.070 17.070 being July 31.

@parhizj Interesting! I thought you knew something about Aug 3. TBH, I feel like other weather systems would have had Aug 3rd as higher.

@Odoacre - I wish I had seen your market earlier

@PC I also wanted to move on...

Such an interesting question. @parhizj. Are you trading this market? Would hate to go against you. Also feel like you know something :)

@PC I won't ever trade in my markets. As to the second question, I don't "know" something. Meteorology/Climate is not my field.

@parhizj Oh cool! I mean it hasn't even got to Aug 3rd yet. Will bet accordingly

I think this is reasonable since the temperatures are rising across the globe.

Especially since: https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1686485331539820545