Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S / ERA5 dataset) reports in its annual global climate release that the global surface air temperature for calendar year 2027 was the highest on record (exceeding all prior calendar years).

If the C3S dataset is unavailable, the market will resolve according to official annual global surface temperature data from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISTEMP) or the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

If 2027 ranks second or lower, or ties for the highest temperature on record without exceeding previous years, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Global average surface temperatures are tracked by several primary climate monitoring bodies, including Copernicus (C3S/ECMWF), NASA (GISTEMP), NOAA (NCEI), Berkeley Earth, the UK Met Office, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Annual global temperatures are driven by long-term anthropogenic warming trends combined with interannual ocean-atmosphere variability, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. As of 2026, calendar year 2024 holds the record for the warmest year on record across major global temperature datasets.

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