Criteria (Any politician in the "national" goverment US senate, US house of reps, president, cabinet etc)

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026 (or the market's designated close date, if edited by the creator), a sitting member of the United States federal government explicitly mentions "Manifold" or "Manifold Markets" (referring to the prediction market platform) in an official, public, or verifiable capacity.

Eligible politicians include:

• Members of the U.S. Senate

• Members of the U.S. House of Representatives

• The President or Vice President of the United States

• Confirmed members of the U.S. Cabinet or Cabinet-level officials

An eligible "mention" must satisfy the following:

1. Context: The politician must explicitly name "Manifold" or "Manifold Markets" while clearly referencing the forecasting/prediction market platform (https://manifold.markets).

2. Exclusion: The use of the general English word "manifold" in a non-platform context (e.g., "manifold problems" or automotive exhaust "manifolds") does not qualify.

3. Capacity: The mention can be written or verbal, occurring in official Congressional records, bill text, public hearings, official letters, press releases, public speeches, verified social media accounts, or on-the-record interviews with major news outlets.

Verification Sources: Traders can verify potential resolutions via:

• Official bill text or hearing transcripts on Congress.gov

• Direct links to archived, verified social media posts or official press releases

• Reliable coverage from mainstream news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Axios) confirming the mention.

If no verifiable mention occurs by the close of the market, it will resolve to NO.

Background

As prediction markets have surged in volume, federal lawmakers have increasingly targeted the sector with legislative proposals. In 2026, bills such as the "BETS OFF Act" (sponsored by Senator Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar) and the "Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act" have aimed to curb event trading on government actions and geopolitical events.

While major real-money platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face the bulk of federal regulatory and legislative scrutiny, play-money forecasting platforms like Manifold Markets remain prominent alternatives in the space. This market tracks whether federal policymakers will formally or publicly acknowledge Manifold by name.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.