Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if any active, sitting member of the United States Senate (representing one of the 50 U.S. states) dies between July 1, 2026, and July 31, 2026, inclusive (based on the local time of death of the senator).

The market resolves to NO if no active, sitting member of the United States Senate dies during this timeframe.

• Only sitting U.S. Senators qualify for this market. Former U.S. senators, U.S. representatives, state-level senators, or senators of other nations do not count.

• If a sitting U.S. Senator's death occurs within the specified July 1–31, 2026 window but is not publicly announced or confirmed until after July 31, 2026, the market will still resolve to YES once the date of death is verified to have occurred in July 2026.

• Standard reputable news outlets (e.g., AP News, Reuters) or official congressional announcements will serve as the source of truth.

Background

The United States Senate is notable for its aging membership. In the 119th Congress (2025–2026), the average age of U.S. senators is 64 years old, with 50 senators older than 65. The oldest active member is Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who is 92 years old. Other older members include Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at 83, Mitch McConnell (R-KY) at 83, and Jim Risch (R-ID) at 81. Historically, 302 senators have died while actively holding office.

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