Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if a Democratic candidate wins the November 3, 2026 special election to fill the remainder of Marco Rubio's U.S. Senate term. The market resolves NO if a Republican candidate wins. The primary election will be held August 18, 2026, with the general election on November 3, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Florida Division of Elections.

Background

The special election was triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation to become United States Secretary of State in President Donald Trump's second administration. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody to replace Rubio, and she is running in the special election to complete the term. Republicans currently have a 53-45 majority in the Senate, making this seat strategically important for the chamber's partisan balance.

Considerations

Florida has shifted significantly toward Republicans in recent cycles. Rubio won his 2022 election with 57.68% of the vote, indicating a strong Republican lean in the state. However, Florida Democrats recently flipped two legislative seats in special elections, with Democrat Brian Nathan defeating Republican Josie Tomkow in a state Senate race, suggesting potential Democratic momentum in special election turnout.

This description was generated by AI.