When will the next person celebrate 120s birthday?
34
3.6kṀ3905
2036
10%
In 2029 or earlier
15%
In 2030 or earlier
25%
In 2031 or earlier
35%
In 2032 or earlier
47%
In 2033 or earlier
50%
In 2034 or earlier
57%
In 2035 or earlier
Resolved
NO
In 2027
Resolved
NO
In 2028 or earlier

The oldest person in history was Jeanne Calment, who lived to be 122 year old, though there is some controversy regarding her real age. The second oldest person lived to be just 119, meaning that we aren't completely sure whether anyone lived to be 120 years old.

The oldest person alive as of 2024-03-04 just celebrated her 117s birthday, so the earliest anyone can reach 120 years old is exactly 3 years from now, in 2027.

The market will resolve positively as soon as the List of the verified oldest people Wikipedia page and similar sources list a person who is at least 120 years old and is alive or died after this question has been created.

In the case of a controversy regarding the age of the oldest living person (for example if different reputable sources give different results), I'll delay the resolution in case it becomes clear. If the resolution is still unclear after some time, I might resolve one or more of the answers as N/A.

I will be resolving the answers to NO as soon as the oldest person on the List of oldest living people can't possibly live to 120 in the respective time period. I.e. as soon as nobody is left who was born in the year 1908 or earlier, the answer "In 2028 or earlier" can be resolved as NO.

I do not bet on my own markets.

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