The oldest person in history was Jeanne Calment, who lived to be 122 year old, though there is some controversy regarding her real age. The second oldest person lived to be just 119, meaning that we aren't completely sure whether anyone lived to be 120 years old.
The oldest person alive as of 2024-03-04 just celebrated her 117s birthday, so the earliest anyone can reach 120 years old is exactly 3 years from now, in 2027.
The market will resolve positively as soon as the List of the verified oldest people Wikipedia page and similar sources list a person who is at least 120 years old and is alive or died after this question has been created.
In the case of a controversy regarding the age of the oldest living person (for example if different reputable sources give different results), I'll delay the resolution in case it becomes clear. If the resolution is still unclear after some time, I might resolve one or more of the answers as N/A.
I will be resolving the answers to NO as soon as the oldest person on the List of oldest living people can't possibly live to 120 in the respective time period. I.e. as soon as nobody is left who was born in the year 1908 or earlier, the answer "In 2028 or earlier" can be resolved as NO.
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Who is in range: the oldest living person, Ethel Caterham, was born on 21 August 1909, so the earliest possible 120th birthday is 21 August 2029. Past 105 the annual probability of death flattens at about 50% (Barbi et al., Science 2018), which gives her roughly 1 in 8 for three more years, in line with the 9% on "2029 or earlier". Each later option draws on the handful of validated people currently 114 and over, each facing about six years at 50% a year, so around 1.5% apiece; the Gerontology Research Group counted 205 validated living supercentenarians in July 2026, most of them 110 to 112. Only one person has ever been verified past 120 (Calment, 122; second place Kane Tanaka, 119 years 107 days). No intervention has lowered that plateau hazard in any mammal in a controlled trial; the first tests of whether a drug moves mortality hazard in a long-lived mammal that lives with us are the dog trials reading out around 2029 to 2031. TRIAD record with sources (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/triad-rapamycin.html
@traders According to the list of oldest living people, everyone born before 1909 has already died, so I'm resolving 2028 as NO.
Currently there's only one living person who could celebrate 120s birthday in 1929.
@redcat The resolution criteria are based on the specific Wikipedia pages. If there's any evidence of ongoing vandalism, I'll wait until the pages stabilize, but otherwise I'm just going to trust them.
Just checked the list of oldest leaving people and there's just one person still alive who can celebrate the 120s birthday in 2028.
Just checked and Maria Branyas is still alive at 117 and is the only person who can reach 120 y.o. in 2027. Two more people could reach the age of 120 in 2028.