When will a GPT-4 class model run on a single consumer PC?

29

1.3kṀ3761

resolved Jun 30

Resolved

YES

Before 2025

Resolved

YES

Before 2026

Resolved

YES

Before 2027

Resolved

YES

Before 2028

Resolved

YES

Before 2029

Resolved

YES

Before 2030

The market will resolve positively when a LLM model appears which fulfils the following conditions:

It is publicly available to be downloaded (for free or for a fee <$1000).
It can be run on a consumer PC with one CPU and at most one consumer GPU. (It's ok if it requires a high-end model like RTX 5090.)
It achieves the average inference speed of at least 60 words per minute on the high-end consumer hardware.
It is ranked on par with GPT-4 models on Chatbot Arena Leaderboard. It should beat at least one version of GPT-4 models presented in the ranking. If Chatbot Arena no longer exists or doesn't list the model in question, another similar ranking can be used.

I do not bet on my own questions.

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Related questions

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Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?

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