When will a country withdraw from NATO for the first time
13
1.1kṀ9892031
6%
by end of 2025
15%
by end of 2026
17%
by end of 2027
21%
by end of 2028
21%
by end of 2029
21%
by end of 2030
28%
by end of 2031
By a member invoking article 13 and withdrawing willingly from the NATO alliance.
The withdrawal procedure for article 13 technically takes one year to go into effect, but formally initiating the process is enough for this market to resolve.
I plan to add a new answer every year, so on Jan first 2025 I will resolve the 2024 option as NO and I will add a by 2031 option, and so on.
When the first country withdraws from NATO, then all currently open options will resolve as YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@JoshuaWilkes I plan to add a new answer every year, so on Jan first 2025 I will resolve the 2024 option as NO and I will add a by 2031 option.
When the first country withdraws from NATO, then all currently open options will resolve as YES.
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