@ChurlishGambit Is there a worldline where this resolves NO and any other answer resolves YES?

@Quroe I can't think of a likely one—but as I said elsewhere, I included contrarian answers, since this website has a lot of contrarian bettors :)

@ChurlishGambit I am trying to imply what would happen if NATO outlives America, then NATO ceases to exist after that, and some of us Manifolders are still alive. I'm being purposefully obtuse for a bit here, but it does seem like a corner case that technically exists.

@Quroe Ah! I misunderstood. If the US dissolves before 2040, but we're still alive, then it's NO. & if the US dissolves, then I can't imagine NATO will go on much longer. So, say America falls apart in 2030, then NATO by 2032, but we're not all dead.

Then it's "NO" on outliving America & us all, but YES on dissolving before 2040, 2038, 2036, & 2034.

How do you evaluate 'dead already'?

It is unreasonable to have a prediction market about a past event.

@LarsOsborne It isn't unreasonable. It may be decided later, in retrospect, that NATO was already dead. Some already believe it to be.

@ChurlishGambit

Markets are decided by you, so if you believe it is already dead just resolve it yes.

If you believe it isn't already dead resolve it no.

If there is another resolution criteria, say what that is.

@LarsOsborne This market isn't based on my personal beliefs

@ChurlishGambit I think the retrospective option is fine, but you may need to clarify some things if this market resolves to when NATO is effectively "dead" rather than when it formally dissolves. How will this be determined if not by your own judgement?

@a_l_e_x Consensus research

@ChurlishGambit oh my god could you be any more obtuse

@ChurlishGambit okay, not the most comprehensive resolution criteria. I'm just going to trust you to not blatantly misresolve this

@LarsOsborne Not all markets are for everyone, futarchy is not for everyone. "Be excellent to each other" is one of the rules here. If you can't abide, you're not welcome in my markets, thanks.

@a_l_e_x I don't have any incentive to mis-resolve; I don't really care about the play money. I care about precision of information & results. I want to see if the community here can accurately forecast dissolution of NATO; & I included contrarian options, as there are many contrarian bettors.

@ChurlishGambit I believe you. Though I'm not sure how much precision you can expect if there's uncertainty about what "dissolves" means here. But I don't want to badger you any further here. It's your market, you can design it how you like

@a_l_e_x If there's any ambiguity, I trust that it can be resolved with a community discussion or poll :D

@ChurlishGambit Please include resolution criteria

@Lilemont It will resolve when NATO is dissolved (or after 2040)

@ChurlishGambit What does dissolved mean?

@Lilemont Well in the case of an organization, it's typically when the organization ceases to exist

@ChurlishGambit You just said "It may be decided later, in retrospect, that NATO was already dead."

@Lilemont Correct, I already addressed that extensively. Please review the comments above, thanks!

@Lilemont I really don't like repeating myself. Out of politeness, I will do it one more time, even though you're being very hostile & demanding.

1. This will resolve when NATO dissolves, or after 2040.
2. If it is consensus that NATO is already moribund & effectively dead, that will be the winning option.

Please be more polite, & please read what's already here before asking for repeat information. Thanks!