Resolution criteria

As of 2026, no member state has rescinded their membership, but this market resolves YES if any NATO member country formally notifies the United States of withdrawal under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty before December 31, 2026. A country must send the United States a "notice of denunciation," which the U.S. would then pass on to the other Allies, and after a one-year waiting period, the country would be out. The market resolves YES if such notice is formally issued during 2026, regardless of when the one-year waiting period expires. Resolution will be verified through official NATO announcements or statements from the withdrawing country's government.

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Considerations

Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that any bid by the US to take over Greenland will result in the end of the NATO military alliance, stating "If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops." This reflects heightened tensions that could theoretically trigger a member withdrawal, though no country has formally announced such intent as of January 2026.