Resolution criteria

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if any new country officially joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) before January 1, 2027 (00:00 UTC). If no new country joins before this deadline, the market will resolve to NO.

For the purposes of this market, a country is considered to have officially joined NATO when it deposits its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the Government of the United States of America (the official depositary of the Treaty) in accordance with Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

The primary source of truth for this market will be NATO's official member countries page and official press releases from the NATO official website. Any country beyond the 32 existing member states that successfully completes accession and is listed as a full member before the deadline will trigger a YES resolution.

Background

NATO currently consists of 32 member states. Sweden was the most recent country to join, becoming the 32nd member on March 7, 2024, following Finland's accession as the 31st member on April 4, 2023.

The alliance officially recognizes three partner countries that have declared aspirations for NATO membership: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine.

The process for a new country to join NATO requires:

1. Unanimous consensus among all existing member states to issue an invitation.

2. Completion of official accession talks.

3. Signing of the Accession Protocol by NATO allies.

4. Formal ratification of the protocol by the government and domestic legislature of every individual NATO member country.

5. The applicant country depositing its instrument of accession with the US State Department.