Another Manifold user charged with homicide before 2027?
7
100Ṁ270
2026
16%
chance

One Manifold user has been charged with homicide so far that we know of. Will there be another before 2027?

  • Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the first Manifold user charged with homicide, which serves as the premise for this market, is Luigi Mangione.

  • Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for the market to resolve to YES, two conditions must be met:

    • The creator or the Manifold community must become aware of the homicide charge.

    • The charge must be able to be linked to a specific Manifold user account.

  • Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided examples of what would be considered sufficient evidence:

    • For the homicide charge: Media reports or court records.

    • For linking to the Manifold account: A matching username and/or avatar with a confirmed online account of the individual.

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