Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?
➕
Plus
23
Ṁ2307
2027
85%
chance

Same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of

Except, one year later.

This market will resolve YES if:

  • Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2027.

  • Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2027.

The market will resolve NO if:

  • Mangione is acquitted of murder charges

  • No conviction is reached by January 1st, 2027

  • Charges are dropped or reduced to lesser charges (e.g., manslaughter)

  • Mangione is never formally charged with murder

  • Mangione dies before a conviction is reached

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Ṁ1,000
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bought Ṁ100 NO

Trials on high profile cases can easily take over three years

https://open.substack.com/pub/shakeddown/p/lawyers-are-bad-actually

@ShakedKoplewitz The Daniel Penny case finished in about 18 months.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yeah, it can take longer but high variance. I'm giving it 20% to take over two years but I wouldn't give it 75%.

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