Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026?
313
1kṀ130k
2026
12%
chance

Background

On December 8th, 2024, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot in New York City. Luigi Mangione has been identified as a "strong person of interest" and is currently in custody for questioning in connection with the murder. As of now, he has not been charged with any crime.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

  • Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2026.

  • Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2026.

The market will resolve NO if:

  • Mangione is acquitted of murder charges

  • No conviction is reached by January 1st, 2026

  • Charges are dropped or reduced to lesser charges (e.g., manslaughter)

  • Mangione is never formally charged with murder

  • Mangione dies before a conviction is reached

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