The war will be considered to have ended in 2024 if a ceasefire beginning in 2024 is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed in 2024. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire.
Related questions
Here's an Insight Prediction market, currently at 9-12%. https://insightprediction.com/m/248076/will-the-russia-ukraine-war-end-by-june-30th-2024
Is there any way of knowing whether a ceasefire is temporary before it ceases?
Edit: nevermind
How big a deal is it that Ukraine hacked the Russian IRS?
https://therecord.media/ukraine-intelligence-claims-attack-on-russia-tax-service
https://manifold.markets/dashboard/good-judgment-superforecasters?r=VHVtYmxlcw
This market is predicting WAY higher than the superforecaster prediction here
