Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2024?
78
399
1.1k
2025
17%
chance

The war will be considered to have ended in 2024 if a ceasefire beginning in 2024 is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed in 2024. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire.

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bought Ṁ250 NO from 18% to 15%

Is there any way of knowing whether a ceasefire is temporary before it ceases?
Edit: nevermind

bought Ṁ10 of NO

If an armistice is reached, do you have some kind of measure in mind for how substantial violations need to be for it to be considered broken?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

How big a deal is it that Ukraine hacked the Russian IRS?

https://therecord.media/ukraine-intelligence-claims-attack-on-russia-tax-service

bought Ṁ80 of YES

Taking yes bets

predicts NO

@njmkw you may wish to extend the close date to 1/1/2025

https://manifold.markets/dashboard/good-judgment-superforecasters?r=VHVtYmxlcw

This market is predicting WAY higher than the superforecaster prediction here

predicts NO

The War in Donbass didn't end, despite many ceasefire attempts, so I don't see why it would now.

@njmkw I think the close date for this should be extended to end of 2024.

@njmkw If the question is during 2024, why does it close 1.1.2024 and not 1.1.2025?

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