It's worth noting that life on earth started almost immediately after the surface stopped being molten, so it seems initial development of life isn't one of the great filters, compared to e.g. multicellular life

This is currently set to close March 16th by the way, which I believe is not your intention

@jBosc It is, we have this question resolving based on whatever it reads at that time.

I'm very confident that the answer is <<1%.

@PlasmaBallin I don’t buy that. It looks likely that Mars at least for some time could have been life-supporting and may have done so. Ditto, potentially Enceladus. If we were to prove that both had at least single-celled organisms then our own solar system would be 100%. My feeling is that where there is the potential for life it’s quite likely to spring up, even if it then doesn’t get very far.

@Noit The question is about what proportion of potentially life-supporting planets actually develop life, not what proportion of planets can support it. The fact that Mars and Enceladaus could have been life-supporting is evidence against the former being high, not in favor of it.

Results of this market will be used here at first closure:

https://manifold.markets/Noit/how-many-aliens-does-manifold-think?r=Tm9pdA

How Many Aliens Does Manifold Think Might We Talk To? Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

This market resolves based on the output of the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation prediction markets for each variable in the Drake Equation, linked below, as priced at time of this market closure. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation). For questions with a percentage output, the YES percentage will be used for the calculation. For questions with a category output, the midpoint of the highest-YES-valued category will be used (e.g. if the category lists 1-10, then the output used will be 5). [markets]