How Many Aliens Does Manifold Think Might We Talk To? Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

#Science #Aliens #Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

285

Ṁ323

Ṁ810

resolved Dec 19

ALL

100%60%

1,001 to 10,000

2 to 10

11 to 100

101 to 1,000

10,001 to 100,000

100,001 to 1,000,000

1,000,001 to 100,000,000

More than 100,000,000

2%Other

This market resolves based on the output of the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation prediction markets for each variable in the Drake Equation, linked below, as priced at time of this market closure. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).

For questions with a percentage output, the YES percentage will be used for the calculation.

For questions with a category output, the midpoint of the highest-YES-valued category will be used (e.g. if the category lists 1-10, then the output used will be 5).

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5 Comments

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At point of closure, variables were as follows:

R* = “6 to 7”= 6.5
fp = 82%
ne = “0 to 1” = 0.5
fl = 26%
fi = 12%
fc = 66%
L = “10,000 to 100,000” = 55,000

Multiplied together, this gives us a total Drake estimate of 3,018 civilisations! All other markets have been unlocked for review in three months.

@Noit I'm sorry I ruined your market, but I manipulated it a little bit to get more profit. However, a lot of the component markets were definitely not following scientific consensus anyway, wherever consensus exists. For example, the R* is estimated to be 1.5-3, and fp is most likely >95%, according to Wikipedia

Since you're multiplying things, I think the middle of the range "1-10" is the geometric mean of the range, not the arithmetic. So sqrt(10) or 3.16, not 5 or 5.5.

I don't think multiplying point estimates is a valid way to perform this calculation; rather, you should convolve the distributions.