This market resolves based on the output of the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation prediction markets for each variable in the Drake Equation, linked below, as priced at time of this market closure. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).
For questions with a percentage output, the YES percentage will be used for the calculation.
For questions with a category output, the midpoint of the highest-YES-valued category will be used (e.g. if the category lists 1-10, then the output used will be 5).
1,000
3.00@Noit I'm sorry I ruined your market, but I manipulated it a little bit to get more profit. However, a lot of the component markets were definitely not following scientific consensus anyway, wherever consensus exists. For example, the R* is estimated to be 1.5-3, and fp is most likely >95%, according to Wikipedia
Since you're multiplying things, I think the middle of the range "1-10" is the geometric mean of the range, not the arithmetic. So sqrt(10) or 3.16, not 5 or 5.5.
I don't think multiplying point estimates is a valid way to perform this calculation; rather, you should convolve the distributions.
@Stralor Fair point, I’d thought it wasn’t possible but if the percentage scores go low enough then it can happen, so I’ve added it in.