By 2040, will there be strong evidence of life originating on any moon, asteroid, or planet (other than Earth) in our solar system? This includes life that is non-cellular (e.g., a self-supporting virus), that is extinct (e.g. fossils), and that uses a genetic carrier other than RNA/DNA. Very strong chemical evidence -- for example, confirmed methane of biological origin on Enceladus -- may be sufficient to resolve this, but I will be skeptical of purely spectroscopic evidence.
1,000If we have strong evidence by then that life on Earth actually started on Mars (such as suggested here: https://www.space.com/22577-earth-life-from-mars-theory.html) then will that be sufficient to resolve this question yes?
@DanielEth Probably not. Proof that a necessary precursor to life originated elsewhere will not be sufficient; proof that life originated on Mars, but without actually finding any on Mars might resolve this YES, but I'd be surprised if there's scientific consensus on that (but, I've been surprised before). My very limited understanding it that the claim that borates are a pre-biotic necessity is only in the 'probably' range, and that they do appear on Earth through volcanic activity. But I will make a point of learning more if the scientific consensus moves towards this theory.