How Many Aliens Does Manifold Think Might We Talk To? Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

680Ṁ483

resolved Mar 18

100%42%

101 to 1,000

1.5%

11%

2 to 10

11 to 100

1,001 to 10,000

10,001 to 100,000

1.5%

100,001 to 1,000,000

1.5%

1,000,001 to 100,000,000

1.5%

More than 100,000,000

25%

1.5%

Other

1.5%Other

This market resolves based on the output of the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation prediction markets for each variable in the Drake Equation, linked below, as priced at time of this market closure. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).

For questions with a percentage output, the YES percentage will be used for the calculation.

For questions with a category output, the midpoint of the highest-YES-valued category will be used (e.g. if the category lists 1-10, then the output used will be 5).

Science

Aliens

Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

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1,000

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6.5 x 0.73 x 0.5 x 0.2 x 0.09 x 0.42 x 55,000 = 986 potential discord we might talk to.

With the relatively low interest in this experiment and the increased cost of multiple choice markets, this will be the last result of Manifold Solves the Drake Equation for now.

@Noit for what it's worth I think it was a really cool idea :)

bought Ṁ1 YES

This one is seriously underpriced if we expect a roughly normal distribution across orders of magnitude, for some reason at the moment it's bimodal

Will your calculation use the results of the linked markets at the exact moment that this market closes? Because then this is just whalebait and probably won't give any useful information.