How Many Aliens Does Manifold Think Might We Talk To? Manifold Solves the Drake Equation
Basic
17
Ṁ483resolved Mar 18
100%42%
101 to 1,000
1.5%
1
11%
2 to 10
2%
11 to 100
8%
1,001 to 10,000
3%
10,001 to 100,000
1.5%
100,001 to 1,000,000
1.5%
1,000,001 to 100,000,000
1.5%
More than 100,000,000
25%
0
1.5%
Other
1.5%Other
This market resolves based on the output of the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation prediction markets for each variable in the Drake Equation, linked below, as priced at time of this market closure. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).
For questions with a percentage output, the YES percentage will be used for the calculation.
For questions with a category output, the midpoint of the highest-YES-valued category will be used (e.g. if the category lists 1-10, then the output used will be 5).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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1,000and
3.00
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