How Many Aliens Does Manifold Think Might We Talk To? Manifold Solves the Drake Equation
17
680Ṁ483resolved Mar 18
100%42%
101 to 1,000
1.5%
1
11%
2 to 10
2%
11 to 100
8%
1,001 to 10,000
3%
10,001 to 100,000
1.5%
100,001 to 1,000,000
1.5%
1,000,001 to 100,000,000
1.5%
More than 100,000,000
25%
0
1.5%
Other
1.5%Other
This market resolves based on the output of the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation prediction markets for each variable in the Drake Equation, linked below, as priced at time of this market closure. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).
For questions with a percentage output, the YES percentage will be used for the calculation.
For questions with a category output, the midpoint of the highest-YES-valued category will be used (e.g. if the category lists 1-10, then the output used will be 5).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ145 | |
| 2 | Ṁ91 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI wipe out Manifold by 2030?
5% chance
When will a Manifold question or comment be posted by someone in space?
Will Elon join Manifold through 2025?
2% chance
When will Manifold sweepify any question about aliens or the JFK assassination.
Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)
49% chance
Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?
50% chance
At the beginning of 2029, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
77% chance
At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
73% chance
Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
14% chance
Will Manifold be mentioned in a mainstream Hollywood movie before 2030?
11% chance