What percentage of Milky Way stars have >0 planets?
27
1kṀ992
2026
74%
chance

This market will be used to calculate fp for the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation project. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).

Buy YES to increase percentage and NO to decrease percentage. 100% indicates all stars have >0 planets, 0% indicates no stars have planets.

This market is intended to not resolve and functions as a stock ticker tracking the current scientific consensus. It will close intermittently to allow for easy tracking of project and reopen once recordings are taken. If a solid scientific consensus is held over a significant period of time (multiple decades) then it may resolve to the percentage of that consensus.

Science
Aliens
Manifold Solves the Drake Equation
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Results of this market will be used here at first closure:

https://manifold.markets/Noit/how-many-aliens-does-manifold-think?r=Tm9pdA

How Many Aliens Does Manifold Think Might We Talk To? Manifold Solves the Drake Equation
This market resolves based on the output of the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation prediction markets for each variable in the Drake Equation, linked below, as priced at time of this market closure. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation). For questions with a percentage output, the YES percentage will be used for the calculation. For questions with a category output, the midpoint of the highest-YES-valued category will be used (e.g. if the category lists 1-10, then the output used will be 5). [markets]

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