This market will be used to calculate fp for the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation project. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).
Buy YES to increase percentage and NO to decrease percentage. 100% indicates all stars have >0 planets, 0% indicates no stars have planets.
This market is intended to not resolve and functions as a stock ticker tracking the current scientific consensus. It will close intermittently to allow for easy tracking of project and reopen once recordings are taken. If a solid scientific consensus is held over a significant period of time (multiple decades) then it may resolve to the percentage of that consensus.
1,000Nobody agrees on the definition of exoplanet, scientifically "planet" (without exo) requires it to be in our solar system. Dwarf planets (not being just a planet), and asteroid/commit type objects complicate further.
Could take reasonable assumptions through.
Star:
• Remains permanently inside a solar system.
• Emits a significant amount of visible frequency light across its entire surface due to non-artificial nuclear fusion due to its large mass.
Planet:
• Orbiting a star.
• Not being a star.
• Its whole orbit being within one solar system.
• Not orbiting a planet or moon, where this definition is used to tell what is a planet. But there are still tricky situations, for example where 1 month = 1 year.
• Having enough mass for gravity to make it spherical, not being another shape, or just approximately spherical by accident.
• Pluto might make for a nice cut-off point.
A good question here as to where the bar goes is if people would be ok if our solar system turned out to have 150 "planets" to memorise, but nearly all of them were just uninteresting space rocks and ice chunks.
Jupiter is nearly massive enough to start visibly glowing, it's nearly a star, if it were and had body X orbiting it, then the status of X becomes confusing given that multi-star solar systems exist.
If Pluto and its moon were more massive and counted as a planet rather than a dwarf planet, then is it a double planet, or a planet and a moon. It's been established for our system, but there's no principled way of doing it.
Does every star get an Oort cloud to determine its edge, also confusing if not.
Can a black hole count as a star in this definition.
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Results of this market will be used here at first closure:
https://manifold.markets/Noit/how-many-aliens-does-manifold-think?r=Tm9pdA
