How many MPs will defect to another party in 2024?
Basic
14
1.1k
Dec 31
86%
4-5
Resolved
NO
0
Resolved
YES
1
Resolved
YES
2-3

Between 1st January 2024 and 31st December 2024 inclusive, how many sitting MPs of the UK Parliament will resign their party whip and announce that they are a member of another political party?

  • A formal statement of resignation AND a statement of acceptance into the new party is required (verified Twitter/X or similar is fine).

  • Resignation is counted from the date the MP makes their statement and so resolution may drag into 2025 if the party does not signal acceptance quickly.

  • No by-election need be called for this to count.

  • Resigning the whip to form a new party (e.g. Change UK) or join a seatless party (e.g. Reform UK) does count as long as the party is a registered political party.

  • Resigning to the whip to stand as an independent does not count.

  • MP must be sitting at point of defection, NOT at market start.

More answers will be added if existing answers resolve YES, each answer will resolve YES as soon as its criteria are met.

Defection count:

1) Dan Poulter CON to LAB.

2) Natalie Elphicke CON to LAB.

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@traders Rules lawyers, start your engines!

Former Conservative Bolton North East MP Mark Logan has defected to Labour. He will not be standing again. However his resignation / defection letter is dated yesterday, when he was still an MP. And he has been accepted by Labour.

This only becomes relevant if there is one more defection in the rest of the year, as that will mean we have an open question on whether or not to resolve 4-5 YES.

Natalie Elphicke has defected from CON to LAB. No, she wasn’t top of my list either. 2-3 resolves YES. If 4-5 resolves YES I will move this to a new numeric market.

Noitopened aṀ10 1 YES at 80% order

Dan Poulter has resigned the Conservative whip and defected to Labour, guaranteeing at least a single defection before the election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/27/top-tory-mp-defects-to-labour-in-fury-at-nhs-crisis

Point of clarification: Lee Anderson has lost the Conservative whip and therefore would not count as a defection to Reform were he to join them.