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@Noit If Starmer announces his intention to resign triggering a leadership election due to “Vacancy”, will everything resolve No or will people how get the nomination to enter the election resolve Yes (despite there officially being no “Challenge”)?

@archvenison “all names will resolve NO when Keir Starmer announces his intention to stand down, or otherwise ceases to be leader of the Labour party.”

@Noit OK, but that seems to conflict with “A leadership challenge is deemed to have been mounted when the Labour Party confirms that a valid nomination has been received for a leadership election while Keir Starmer remains leader.”

Once again theres the distinction between announcing resignation and stopping being PM

@archvenison the question is who mounts a challenge against Starmer, if he has announced his resignation then nobody is challenging him for the leadership. This market is specifically about using the processes of the Labour Party to unseat the leader, not a more general leadership contest question as those can be found elsewhere.

party before country

make it real clear to the british voter that it doesn't matter who they elect, because the party plans to do a switcheroo and replace them as soon as they get the chance

if there is no way to resolve the country's issues from within the political system, and politics has become corrupted beyond recognition, then the only solution is to end the system

Relevant for the Burnham market:

What happens if (say) Wes Streeting triggers a leadership election and Angela Rayner joins as a candidate? Do both resolve or just Streeting? Current prices imply the former but the wording suggests the latter to me.

@Roddy my understanding is that the rules as written require candidates to have the nominations and so there should be nobody sticking their hand up and saying “put my name in the hat too” without having met the threshold for a YES resolution. Rayner’s statement this morning means either she doesn’t understand the Labour leadership challenge rules, or she expects the contest to go off-book. I’ll be resolving this purely on the basis of Labour NEC confirmed candidates.

@ChrisGardham @Noit Can you formally confirm that this refers to Al Carns (despite misspelling), so we can avoid shenanigans from bad actors in the future?

@archvenison (Pedantry brought to you by this market)

@archvenison I have corrected the spelling and will resolve on that basis

@archvenison oh, yeah my bad sorry

I've added Andy Burnham on because it seems silly that he's not on here at this point. Also rumours abound that Afzhal Khan of Manchester Rusholme may stand aside for him, you can bet on a by-election here.

Reminder: a leadership challenge only counts for resolution if they get the number of nominations to trigger the actual process. If anyone (cough Wes cough) makes an announcement that they’re going for it, I’ll not resolve yes until Labour hq confirms the nomination threshold is met.

Catherine West is a nobody and she doesn’t know what the rules are for mounting a leadership contest, but she’s damned well going to try if nobody else does. Unless all her colleagues can talk her out of it, which it sounds like they’re trying to.

So, NO resolutions come only after Starmer goes. Theoretically there could be a series of challenges, and multiple of these could resolve YES?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen correct.

From today’s Politico London Playbook:

Heir to Keir: The Guardian’s Jessica Elgot also found Labour MPs complaining about the lack of a viable leadership candidate brave enough to trigger Starmer’s downfall. Angela Rayner is waiting for the judgment of HMRC over her unpaid stamp duty, while Wes Streeting is seen as a Mandelson acolyte and is keeping his head down. Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood are also “not ready to pounce,” a Labour MP tells Playbook’s Bethany Dawson.

Good to go: The Daily Mail clearly has different sources, who are claiming Rayner has told her friends she is ready to launch a leadership campaign if Starmer resigns — and has quietly amassed a £1 million war chest.

Palace intrigue from Steven Swinford.

Do you have to be a sitting MP at the time of being added as an option to this market?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen you can add anyone you like, they have to be an MP to mount a challenge but I’m sure people will bet accordingly.