🏅 Top traders

Manifold seems to have done considerably better than the polls and pundits here! Thanks @Noit for the market and the pre-results close.

Thank you all for taking part! If you’re seeking more by-election action I’d recommend following (and betting on, if you fancy) this market where I’m tracking likely by-elections in the current Parliament session.

And if you think this impacts the odds of Starmer staying on as prime minister, I’ve also got a market tracking when he’s gone by!

Greens took it!

@Noit do you know how they release the results?

Will they release them only when all votes counted, or will they continue to release results as votes are counted. Thanks

@Jack1 They’ll count through the night, and once all votes are counted they’ll tell the candidates. Unless there’s a demand for a recount, a few minutes later they’ll make a formal announcement. That’s why I have the market set to close at close of polls, there’s no further information from that point until the official announcement and I don’t feel like giving the balance to whoever is watching out for the announcement which is usually in the wee hours. I’m not staying up so will resolve in the morning.

Opinium polling! "Too close to call".

https://bylinetimes.com/2026/02/24/exclusive-poll-anti-reform-tactical-voters-poised-to-defeat-nigel-farages-party-in-gorton-and-denton-by-election/

Workers Party of Britain, is that like "labour" party now the labour party really aren't anymore.

@AlanTennant it’s another George Galloway vehicle like Respect was in the 00s/10s. Socialist, socially conservative and anti-zionist are the three adjectives I think they would want to describe themselves with. They’re not standing in the by-election anyway, hence the 0%.

Feels weird to me:

1. Green's actually wining a seat.

2. Reform UK :/

3. Labour only 13%, but then conservatives with all of 0.0%.

Tactical voting sites say Vote greens to keep reform out

Greens winning because they are better at strategic precommitment

To vote tactically here, vote Green [...] 76% of Labour voters would vote tactically for the Greens to stop Reform, compared to 57% of Green voters who would vote Labour to stop Reform

idk why but the colors and graph on this market are so satisfying to me

We have polling! From some rando non-BPC outfit, but polling nonetheless. And they have it as a three way tie with the greens slightly ahead but the three main contenders are all within the margin of error of each other and the victory.

https://www.omnisis.co.uk/poll-result/constituency-polling-for-by-election-in-gorton-and-denton/

Green activist, doorstep data is neither random nor unbiased polling, take with pinch of vegan salt

Can someone who doesn’t think greens will win put up a big no order for Me? Thanks.

I've got no at 70

@traders big limit order up on greens

Maybe I’m just a little out of touch, but I’d be interested to hear why people seem so much more confident about green than reform? I feel I must be missing something as everything I’ve seen has indicated it’s more of a toss-up, especially considering the centre/left vote is likely more split than the right vote?

@JayDH honestly I think the prices here are pretty wacky. I think people seem to have assumed that Labour are going to be wiped out and the Greens will take their mantle and I’ve seen no evidence that this is even slightly likely to happen. IMO a three horse race with Labour and reform closer to the top spot is realistic, but I’ve had a bad month of betting on Labour so I’m not going to try and correct it.

@Noit Okay, pretty much my thoughts as well. I just wondered if I had missed a poll or something but clearly not! Cheers :)

@JayDH as the largest Labour No holder, you're more than welcome to but Yes-es

however I just look at the polls and the approval for the PM. Unless Starmer is out, I don't think he'll win any by-elections. Labour's basically squeezed by the Greens on the left and Reform on the right.