Which party will win the Makerfield by-election?

Question

Josh Simons has announced that he will stand down as MP in order trigger a by-election in the Makerfield constituency so that Andy Burnham can re-enter parliament. What party will win this by-election?

If the by election doesn't actually happen, this market will resolve N/A

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Labour, followed by Reform and Other are most likely. See the market for live updates (37 traders, as of May 21, 2026).