Which party will win the Makerfield by-election?

Question

Josh Simons has announced that he will stand down as MP in order trigger a by-election in the Makerfield constituency so that Andy Burnham can re-enter parliament. What party will win this by-election?

If the by election doesn't actually happen, this market will resolve N/A

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Reform, followed by Labour and Green are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of May 14, 2026).

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