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MANIFOLD
Which party will win the Makerfield by-election?
62
Ṁ1.1kṀ22k
resolved Jun 19
100%99.5%
Labour
0.1%
Reform
0.1%
Green
0.0%
Conservative
0.0%
Liberal Democrats
0.1%
Restore
0.1%Other

Josh Simons has announced that he will stand down as MP in order trigger a by-election in the Makerfield constituency so that Andy Burnham can re-enter parliament. What party will win this by-election?

If the by election doesn't actually happen, this market will resolve N/A

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sold Ṁ105 NO

Just saw question time. Sorry I ever doubted you Andy.

bought Ṁ250 NO

I've added Restore as an explicit option since the got >5% in a poll

Happy to short Restore Britain for 10k at 5% or so (aka 95% for No). If anyone wants the other side.

bought Ṁ1 YES

Here's one that doesn't resolve NA /Fion/will-andy-burnham-lose-a-byelection