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MANIFOLD
Which party will win the Makerfield by-election?
50
Ṁ1.1kṀ14k
Dec 31
73%
Labour
25%
Reform
1.1%
Restore

Josh Simons has announced that he will stand down as MP in order trigger a by-election in the Makerfield constituency so that Andy Burnham can re-enter parliament. What party will win this by-election?

If the by election doesn't actually happen, this market will resolve N/A

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bought Ṁ250 NO

I've added Restore as an explicit option since the got >5% in a poll

Happy to short Restore Britain for 10k at 5% or so (aka 95% for No). If anyone wants the other side.

bought Ṁ1 YES

Here's one that doesn't resolve NA /Fion/will-andy-burnham-lose-a-byelection