Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ1.4k

2029

11%

chance

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Inspired by this tweet.

This will resolve YES if by the end of 2028, someone causes a significant disruption in the global semiconductor supply chain by the disruption of high-purity quartz mines. If an attack happens close to the resolution date, trading will be extended to see the effects.

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I don't think that text is very realistic. The US isn't the only place with a high-purity quartz mine, and it is very difficult to contaminate them even if you have a crop duster with that specific powder. This is a very strong hypothetical.

bought Ṁ45 NO

To be clear, you don't mean "disrupt" in the silicon-valley sense (i.e. make a splash in the industry). You mean like, physically intervene in the mining process. Right?