Resolves YES if there is a verified failure (valued >$2M) of a semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to a Tier-1 AI country (US, EU, Japan, South Korea), whether it be a delay, the chips being outright stolen or so on. Resolution based on shipping company reports, customs data, or credible news sources.
References:
1,000Betting NO at 51%. The resolution criteria are broad (any >$2M shipment delay counts), but Taiwan's primary shipping routes to US/EU/Japan/South Korea don't transit the Strait of Hormuz — they go across the Pacific or through East Asian corridors. The Iran war doesn't directly threaten Taiwan's chip exports. The main risk is a China-Taiwan scenario, which remains a tail event in 2026. No actual shipment failures reported so far despite elevated geopolitical tensions. My estimate: ~20%.