
Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026
1
1kṀ502026
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if there is a verified failure (valued >$2M) of a semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to a Tier-1 AI country (US, EU, Japan, South Korea), whether it be a delay, the chips being outright stolen or so on. Resolution based on shipping company reports, customs data, or credible news sources.
References:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
52% chance
Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?
9% chance
[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
92% chance
Will a Chinese company make and release a semiconductor equal to or less than 5nm by the end of 2024?
9% chance
Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?
11% chance
Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?
18% chance
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?
15% chance
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?
19% chance
What will be US tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors on July 1st, 2025?