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Will I hold something manufactured or mined in space by 2028?

13% chance

Will we mine an asteroid by 2034?

30% chance

Will 1 ton of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2075?

75% chance

By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

57% chance

Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?

55% chance

By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

48% chance

What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?

Will 1 kg of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2040?

76% chance

Will humanity be mining asteroids by 2100?

79% chance

Will 1 kg of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2030?

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Any feasible mining tech we used for it (e.g. robots), if it launched this afternoon, is unlikely to even arrive on target by 2026, much less get a shipment back to earth in the same time frame.

predictedYES

@AndrewHartman The moon?

predictedNO

@ibbi I'll be honest, I'd assumed that wouldn't count, since to a first approximation that seems like it's "on the moon" not "in space." Maybe you should add some clarification to the description?

predictedYES

@AndrewHartman That’s odd i dont have the same intuition, do you also think of GPS satellites as “not in space”?

Thanks, edited the description!

predictedNO

@ibbi I mean, they're in orbit, seems pretty natural. My inclination there is because the moon is a sufficiently massive celestial body to keep you on it by its own gravity. I wouldn't consider Mars' surface to be "in space" either, y'know?