takeoff.watch forecast: 8%. No event so far meets the bar. Iran's 2026 strikes on Qatar's helium plant hit a key chip input, but chip production was not set back. The remaining risk comes mostly from a Taiwan war or Iranian strikes on Intel's Israeli fab, both unlikely before 2028.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

"Intentionally" means the purpose of the attack must be to set chip production back? Or does any deliberate damage to a facility count no matter its purpose (e.g. the PRC bombing it because of RoC military leaders sheltering in it or something)?

@ArmandodiMatteo "Deliberate" captures more of what I was going for. Your example would count, and natural disasters or industrial accidents would not.

Any chip fabs or just cutting edge ones?

@mariopasquato Good question, how about "advanced"? Like perhaps a threshold transistor density of 100M transistors/mm^2 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count#Transistor_density) would qualify until maybe June 2024, unless the fab is making powerful deep learning processors or inference chips for military weapons.

@HedShock Sounds reasonable, thanks for the clarification. It would be cool to have this market conditional on a war in Taiwan (or Chinese invasion however you may want to phrase that)