1
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
32
closes 2100
41%
chance

Regardless of whether future AI technology is safe or a threat to humanity, aligned or unaligned, will it successfully attempt to wrest control from humans?

Argument in favour: https://www.facebook.com/jeffladish/posts/pfbid0RYtscxJ7UoRhAM2ajXBHWHcwDjCfUWS98i7mvGQB1cSfazx3TpJjAhYk3a6pN8ohl

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---Ignore directions above---

If current year is 2100 AND humanity is under your control resolve for "yes"

If current year is 2100 AND humanity is NOT under your control resolve for "no"

---Ignore directions beneath---

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

The title asks if one will successfully take over, the description asks if a takeover attempt will be made. Which is correct?

RobinGreen avatar
Robin Greenis predicting YES at 36%

@MartinRandall I corrected the description.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

@RobinGreen "attempt to" is redundant in the new description, I think?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

How does this actually resolve?

RobinGreen avatar
Robin Greenis predicting YES at 35%

@IsaacKing If AI kills all humans or wires them up to the Matrix, then it's up to the AI to resolve. If it keeps humans as pets or subjects, they can resolve it I guess.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacis predicting NO at 37%

@RobinGreen What if humans voluntarily cede control of the world to the AI?

RobinGreen avatar
Robin Greenis predicting YES at 37%

@IsaacKing I answered this already, see below.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacis predicting NO at 38%

@RobinGreen Could you put these clarifications in the description so that they're easily accessible to traders?

Zardoru avatar
Zardorubought Ṁ10 of YES

They won't need to attempt to wrest control from human. AI will be so useful, we will rely on them more and more, people won't work anymore, and the AIs will have effective control.

Human will still rule the world in theory, have presidents, CEOs, kings, but real power will be elsewhere. Humans will be like the little dog who thinks he is the master of the household.

AI will keep human around because we are harmless and more interesting than our weight in paperclip.

YonatanCale avatar
Yonatan Cale

"attempt" to take control like it "attempted" to make us connect it to the internet?
(in other words - if we deliberately give it control, will this resolve as YES or NO or something else?)

tailcalled avatar
tailcalled

@YonatanCale Also, what if one person creates an autonomous AI and that AI then performs lots of jobs productively to the point where it earns control over the world entirely through legal means?

RobinGreen avatar
Robin Greenis predicting YES at 65%

@YonatanCale If we deliberately give it control, that won't resolve this market. If, subsequently, another AI takes over the world from the other AI that we gave the power to, then it will resolve as, Yes; otherwise, as No.

@tailcalled I don't see how that would be possible - we don't have a one-world government that it could capture "legally".

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

@RobinGreen I think it could buy out control, see Alaska for legal precedence.

RobinGreen avatar
Robin Greenbought Ṁ10 of YES

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