Will Anthropic ever drop out of the capabilities race despite ability to continue?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ2292029
11%
chance
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This includes multiple scenarios:
Anthropic focuses purely on alignment research
Anthropic "self-immolates" as a costly signal that AI alignment is not possible in the given timeframe
I'll know it when I see it. This question resolves "no" if transformative AI is developed before Anthropic does this, or if Anthropic merges with another company, or goes bankrupt &c.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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