Will Manifold think Nate Silver had a bad take before the end of 2024?

Basic

Ṁ1103

Dec 31

29%

chance

ALL

11 of Nate's tweets have been submitted to this market:

So far, all of them have resolved yes, indicating manifold believes they are good takes.
If an option about a Nate Silver tweet resolves NO in the linked market, this market will resolve YES unless that option clearly misrepresented Nate Silver's tweet or is a duplicate. Otherwise, this market will resolve NO at the end of 2024.

I will not bet on this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Entertainment and Pop Culture

#Meta-markets

#️ X (Twitter)

#Nate Silver

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bought Ṁ25 NO

Depends on how much this market incentivizes people to find a bad Nate Silver take.

Just based on how long the Twitter market has been open with none of his takes resolving NO (and the fact that activity on the Twitter market is slowing down), it doesn't seem like this should have a high probability otherwise.

I thought the dogged insistence that Biden starting late on Day 1 of DNC was a conspiracy was a bad take. But who knows, maybe most people here agree with him

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1825734983874474168

@howahlah Seems reasonable to suspect they were a bit strategic. I don't think something is to the effect of "the convention organisers got together and planned out the event" meets all the criteria of conspiracy

Subsidized to Basic so that it's worthwhile to submit options on the linked market.

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