On which days will real-money betting on Manifold be possible for a majority of American adults?
19
1.1kṀ9610
2030
8%
November 7th, 2028
6%
January 1st, 2027
6%
January 1st, 2026
5%
July 1st, 2026
4%
March 1st, 2025
2%
October 1st, 2025
Resolved
YES
November 5th, 2024
Resolved
YES
January 1st, 2025

This mainly tests if the current sweepstakes model will still be in place on a given date, in which case that date resolves YES. If the sweepstakes model is still nominally in place for a given day, but there are no sweepstakes markets open on that day, that day will resolve NO.

The definition of real-money betting is the same as in https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-launch-real-money-pri

, with the exception that it has to be available to a majority of U.S. residents over the age of 18, based on the population data of states in which real-money betting is allowed.

I will not bet on this market.

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