This mainly tests if the current sweepstakes model will still be in place on a given date, in which case that date resolves YES. If the sweepstakes model is still nominally in place for a given day, but there are no sweepstakes markets open on that day, that day will resolve NO.
The definition of real-money betting is the same as in https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-launch-real-money-pri
, with the exception that it has to be available to a majority of U.S. residents over the age of 18, based on the population data of states in which real-money betting is allowed.
I will not bet on this market.
1,000Markets that close on or before March 3rd will continue as before and will resolve in a normal fashion.
@Ziddletwix New sweepcash issuance from purchases, signups, and streaks has be halted already. According to a strict interpretation of the rules, trading on Manifold is no longer possible for the majority of American adults (it remains possible only for the small minority of U.S. residents who already have sweepcash on the platform).
@Simon74fe under that interpretation, on any day where sweepcash purchases were temporarily disabled for any reason, it would similarly be true that "trading is no longer possible for the majority of American adults" on that day.
If there had been a day where sweepcash purchases had been disabled (e.g. payment processor down), I would personally be surprised by an interpretation where that day resolved "NO" for this market, while active trading continued on those markets. But ultimately it is up to the creator.
I was flagging that many people directly missed the more obvious misinterpretation, that not all sweepcash markets were being closed right away (and many would still have active trading on march 1st). the creator can decide whether an inability to purchase new sweepcash while active trading takes place qualifies as YES or NO for this market
@Simon74fe very unclear criteria at the moment as the markets with real money betting will be open but new cash won’t be coming in. Might make sense to N/A just March 1st because it’s caught in the transition from clear YES to clear NO.
@Ziddletwix I think temporary payment issues may be different because during those times, Manifold would still support Sweepcash in principle, whereas now they are explicitly not supporting it.
I just looked at the linked market and there the rules are more explicit: 'all steps must be officially supported'
@Simon74fe honestly, this was my initial read as well which was why I initially hit NO but I’ve been burned on other people disagreeing on pedantic things like this before so then I reversed seeing the support for Ziddletwix’s comment and mod status. Ended up just burning a chunk f the sweepcash mana. RIP cashed out and taking the loss I guess for not sticking to my initial guns.
@LiamZ to be clear mods are just like, janitors that clean up stuff. the badge is totally irrelevant to my opinion on this market, unless there were like a formal misresolution request, in which case i would not be involved because i bet on it. the first reply to me didn't realize that many sweepcash markets were still open, so there was a genuine miscommunication to clear up. how the creator decides to resolve trading being open vs it being possible to purchase new sweepcash is totally up to them (and is a much more narrow point about the defn of "officially supported" as worded in the linked market).
@Simon74fe FWIW, I read the description a bit differently—I took the phrasing "definition of real-money betting is the same as" to be specifically referring to the definition of "betting", and not require the entire "real money prizes" process to be "officially supported" as described there. If we take "All steps in this process must be officially supported by Manifold" as the threshold, that seems in tension with this: "If the sweepstakes model is still nominally in place for a given day, but there are no sweepstakes markets open on that day, that day will resolve NO", since that seems to ignore any concept of "official support" (very easy for there to be a temporary pause in open markets), and looks only at whether trading is actually possible on that given day. but maybe it's just maximally strict criteria? i.e. if trading is impossible but sweepcash is officially supported it's NO, and if sweepcash is not supported for future purchases but trading for profit is happening, it's NO as well (so both official support & active trading are necessary but not sufficient?)
imo it isn't clear cut from the description either way, that's reading a lot into not much written, but the creator can clear up what they intended (or just rule if this didn't occur to them)
@Ziddletwix I'm planning on N/Aing march 1st unless something happens that makes it unambiguously resolve no, because I think most trading on that option happened because of resolution ambiguity. I'll clarify the resolution criteria for the rest of the options later
@Nightsquared real money betting didn't exist on manifold at the start of the year. Resolves NO.. presumably that was a typo though, lmk if you need N/A assistance or something like that