Well after reading about his training I wasn’t so sure what to think. I sold NO positions yesterday because I thought I’d been way too optimistic. But I was just a tad optimistic. What a legend.

Pace is starting to slow. I think it'll be close!

@RobinFoster Yes, super close. 2:00:45 estimated at 35 km. So basically, will he give up 2 seconds per km over the last 7.2 km? (Now that I think about it, that seems more likely than my prediction implies.)

@howtodowtle But: It's Kipchoge.

@howtodowtle 2:01:09! Pretty impressive run and pretty big swings in the market :)

@RobinFoster Very exciting, yes! Like the race. :D I had a small NO position before the race because improving 40 seconds is A LOT. But started betting it up after about 20 km with that crazy fast first half. I think that estimate of ~2/3 likelihood for sub-2:01:00 wasn't too bad at that time. First went massively NO after 39 km when calculating realistic splits in my head based on time and course. (I've run it like four times and the final straight is loooong, watching on TV you always underestimate the bit from the Brandenburg Gate to the finish line).

@howtodowtle Yeah, I considered selling my no position at that point to cut my losses, but the implied time was so far under I thought he'd have to slow up some. I'm not a runner myself so interesting to get the inside view from an expert! Was such a fast first half actually a negative signal? Do you think he planned that pace or did he set off too quick?

@RobinFoster It was a crazy first half. The split was 59:51, projecting almost 2 minutes under WR for the full distance (1:59:42 vs. 2:01:39). For anyone else, that must be a negative signal. Eliud Kipchoge however has done the previously unthinkable time and time again. I was sure he could not break 2 hours, but at that time I thought that the buffer might be big enough to still get him under 2:01.