Will the next Scottish independence referendum pass?
Will the next Scottish independence referendum pass?
36
1kṀ21482029
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will stay open until it resolves. Resolves YES if a referendum passes, NO if it fails, N/A if a referendum becomes irrelevant.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will there be another Scottish Independence referendum by 2026?
4% chance
When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?
57% chance
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum (indyref2) by 2030?
22% chance
Will independence supporting parties maintain a majority in the next Scottish Parliament Election?
32% chance
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
12% chance
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2029 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
29% chance
Will there be a Scottish Parliament election by the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will the Scottish Labour Party be the second largest party in Holyrood after the next election?
50% chance
Will a referendum be held on Welsh independence from the United Kingdom before 2030?
4% chance
In the next Scottish Parliamentary Election, due in 2026, what %age of the seats will each party win?