Will there be >5 stories of money donated by FTX/FTX Foundation (etc) being frozen or threatened to be before July 2023?

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resolved Jul 31

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So we need to hear 5 independent credible accounts of money that was donated by FTX/FTX Foundation or other assocatied orgs either bieng frozen or officially threatened to be frozen by July 2023.

So money sent back doesn't count unless someone was legally threatened that it would be frozen if they didn't or that it would be clawed back if they didn't.

Edits:

This includes clawbacks.

Nov 12, 1:56am: ~~Will there be more than 5 accounts of money donationed by FTX/ FTX Foundation or associated orgs being frozen in accounts before July 2023?~~ → Will there be more than 5 accounts of money donated by FTX/ FTX Foundation or associated orgs being frozen in accounts before July 2023?

Mar 6, 3:17pm: ~~Will there be more than 5 accounts of money donated by FTX/ FTX Foundation or associated orgs being frozen in accounts before July 2023?~~ → Will there be >5 stories of money donated by FTX/FTX Foundation (etc) being frozen or threatened to be before July 2023?

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predictedNO

@DavidChee

predictedNO

can resolve no?

predictedNO

Please resolve @NathanpmYoung @Manifold @Admin

I guess it did not happen?

@qumeric I think there were < 5 clawbacks from FTX (I am not sure if they even qualify here, but in any case, there were not enough). Related: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13522/ftx-foundation-freezeseizureclawback-demand/

Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back?

Showing the aggregate of 43 community forecasts as of Jul 02, 2023.

"need to hear 5 independent credible accounts" – Do these need to be public, or can they be told to you/[someone else and you hear about them] in DMs?

predictedNO

@HenriThunberg DMs

So if the money is taken via clawback, that counts as "frozen"? What if there is a legal settlement with an agreement to pay back to the FTX estate? That counts as "frozen"?

@PeterWildeford I guess that if they lost any court case or just gave the money that would be frozen?

predictedYES

@NathanpmYoung If they sent the money, I would definitely not call that "frozen", but the "This includes clawbacks" provision in the description is confusing. Can you either clarify the question as including money that was either frozen or transferred, or as frozen money only.

predictedNO

@jack How's this?

predictedYES

@NathanpmYoung Ok, that makes sense to me.

Based on reading https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/o8B9kCkwteSqZg9zc/thoughts-on-legal-concerns-surrounding-the-ftx-situation it appears that transactions that occurred in the last 90 days before the bankruptcy filing are typically subject to clawback (these are called "preference claims"). However, there are many reasons such a claim might not succeed (see the comments).

predictedYES

Note that this is specifically about grants that came from the bankrupt entities, which notably does NOT include FTX Foundation. However, not all grants were paid out from the foundation (according to a comment on the above post).

Arb (with imperfectly matched resolution criteria) with:
https://manifold.markets/SpencerGreenberg/will-projects-which-received-grants
https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-5-of-an-ftx-grant-be-clawed-ba

Will there be more than 5 accounts of money donationed by FTX/ FTX Foundation or associated orgs being frozen in accounts before July 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition