Jul 19
Will there be >5 stories of money donated by FTX/FTX Foundation (etc) being frozen or threatened to be before July 2023?
53%
chance

So we need to hear 5 independent credible accounts of money that was donated by FTX/FTX Foundation or other assocatied orgs either bieng frozen or officially threatened to be frozen by July 2023.

So money sent back doesn't count unless someone was legally threatened that it would be frozen if they didn't or that it would be clawed back if they didn't.

Edits:

This includes clawbacks.

Nov 12, 1:56am: Will there be more than 5 accounts of money donationed by FTX/ FTX Foundation or associated orgs being frozen in accounts before July 2023? → Will there be more than 5 accounts of money donated by FTX/ FTX Foundation or associated orgs being frozen in accounts before July 2023?

Mar 6, 3:17pm: Will there be more than 5 accounts of money donated by FTX/ FTX Foundation or associated orgs being frozen in accounts before July 2023? → Will there be >5 stories of money donated by FTX/FTX Foundation (etc) being frozen or threatened to be before July 2023?

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PeterWildeford avatar
Peter Wildeford

So if the money is taken via clawback, that counts as "frozen"? What if there is a legal settlement with an agreement to pay back to the FTX estate? That counts as "frozen"?

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Youngbought Ṁ100 of NO

@PeterWildeford I guess that if they lost any court case or just gave the money that would be frozen?

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 53%

@NathanpmYoung If they sent the money, I would definitely not call that "frozen", but the "This includes clawbacks" provision in the description is confusing. Can you either clarify the question as including money that was either frozen or transferred, or as frozen money only.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Youngis predicting NO at 53%

@jack How's this?

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 53%

@NathanpmYoung Ok, that makes sense to me.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ100 of NO

Based on reading https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/o8B9kCkwteSqZg9zc/thoughts-on-legal-concerns-surrounding-the-ftx-situation it appears that transactions that occurred in the last 90 days before the bankruptcy filing are typically subject to clawback (these are called "preference claims"). However, there are many reasons such a claim might not succeed (see the comments).

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 38%

Note that this is specifically about grants that came from the bankrupt entities, which notably does NOT include FTX Foundation. However, not all grants were paid out from the foundation (according to a comment on the above post).

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

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