Jan 26, 1:20pm: Will there be a pandemic via zoonosis from the ongoing avian H5N1 outbreak? → Will the WHO declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza?
Feb 4, 12:43am: Will the WHO declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza? → Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza before 2024?
Feb 6, 2:46pm: Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza? → Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza before 2024?
I think this is way too high
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15025/who-pheic-declaration-on-h5n1/
Pedantic sidenote: should it be "a H5N1 pandemic" or "an H5N1 pandemic"? I initially felt like "an" was right but I thought "a" would be less controversial?
@NcyRocks In this case, it depends on if you're British or not (whether you pronounce the letter H like "aich" or like "haich"). If you pronoun it "aich", then you need to say "an", since otherwise there's a weird gap between the vowels. If you pronounce it like "haich" though, there's no reason to use "an". Confusing!
Created the following thread for discussion of H5N1: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QMMFyAX3ajf9vF5sb/h5n1-thread-for-information-sharing-planning-and-action
I encourage everyone to contribute with information. I really hope that I'll end up looking stupid and that biosecurity experts will chime in and tell me that I'm irresponsible and alarmist, but that fear was what kept me from doing anything remotely useful at the beginning of covid. Not making that mistake again.
There haven't even been any human cases associated with the mink outbreak. (Everyone wore PPE.) There's a gigantic gulf between the threat currently posed by the H5N1 on the mink farm and a PHEIC. Not impossible to cross, but mega unlikely imo.
is there somebody mana-rich who can subsidize this market? Seems like an exceptionally high impact use of imaginary money
Seems possible to get to widespread human to human spread, and certainly worth protecting against. But also seems less likely than 10% https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs
Concern about mink outbreak (first?) publicised on Nov 29th 2022 in this technical report from UKHSA urging genomic analysis, leading to this news coverage on Nov 30th.
First study of the genomics of the outbreak published Jan 19th 2023.
Science.org news coverage published Jan 23.
Nature.org follows on Jan 24.
NYTimes opinion article published on Feb 3rd urging further action.
If you want a more accurate prediction on this, you can add liquidity! @ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos?r=TmF0aGFucG1Zb3VuZw
If you want a more accurate prediction on this, you can add liquidity! @ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos?r=TmF0aGFucG1Zb3VuZw
A Tweet by Tailcalled (tailcalled@schelling.pt)
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos?r=dGFpbGNhbGxlZA
Probability Of Widespread Humantohuman H5n1avian
Here's a prediction market: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos?r=RE1vcnJpc29u
This is an interesting market—at 33%, moving upward, sounds pretty dire if it happens https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos?r=S2F0amFHcmFjZQ
@MattZWitten Prediction markets very pessimistic now which does not help me feel better https://manifold.markets/market/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos
Can some people either start betting this market down or start panicking please? https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos?r=TmF0aGFucG1Zb3VuZw https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1621565175416426498 https://t.co/sLWgAndAAN
This doesn't feel like it updated hard enough for the mink thing. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2 Buying to 1:5
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A Tweet by pale bone