If the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1, will they declare an H5N1 pandemic within a year?

Question

This market will stay open until a H5N1 PHEIC is declared (in which case it will resolve within a year) or H5N1 is eradicated (in which case it resolves N/A).

Feb 6, 11:16am: If the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1, will they declare a H5N1 pandemic within a year? → If the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1, will they declare an H5N1 pandemic within a year?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 33% chance (16 traders, as of Feb 6, 2025).