Will a human be infected with H5N1 (bird flu) this winter?
Basic
26
Ṁ73k
resolved Feb 27
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if the CDC or WHO confirm that a human was infected with H5N1 between December 20, 2022 and March 19, 2023.

The market closes two weeks after March 19 to allow for a late confirmation of a previous infection.

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@Radicalia I'll resolve tomorrow morning (ET) based on this link, unless someone raises a valid concern

"The World Health Organization is working with Cambodian authorities after two confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu were found among one family in the country."

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/bird-flu-situation-worrying-who-working-with-cambodia-2023-02-24/

predictedYES

@JoshuaBlake I'll wait until they confirm in their website for resolution, but it is almost certain that it will resolve YES

It seems like there was already a case confirmed in Ecuador: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2023-DON434

Unless anyone raises a valid concern with this case for resolution I will resolve YES tomorrow

@egroj actually, I take it back, I don't think that they confirmed if it was H5N1 or not, only that it was H5. If someone finds the confirmation of H5N1 please let me know

predictedYES

@egroj someone posted this in another market, but I also cannot find confirmation by WHO: https://phnompenhpost.com/national/prey-veng-girl-dies-h5n1-virus-triggering-alarm-bells-kingdom

According to the BBC, the base rate over the last 20 years is 3.6 cases of human infection per month.

@Duncan That would imply 864 cases in total, but this WHO report says there have been 240.

predictedYES

@JavierPrieto That looks like it's just for the Western Pacific Region?

predictedYES

@JavierPrieto I was going by https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64474594 which claims "The World Health Organization (WHO) said that, in the past 20 years, there have been almost 870 cases of human infection with the avian influenza H5N1 virus reported from 21 countries. Of these, 457 were fatal." However, the link leads to a large .pdf, which I didn't feel like bothering with. I certainly support others fact -checking it and posting here.

predictedNO

@Imuli that's right!

predictedYES

@Duncan The PDF is just four pages of tables, which puts the total number of cases at 868. 4 of which were in 2022.

The most informative piece of those tables is that the death rate dropped significantly starting in 2015, but that's still ~1/4.

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