This market will resolve to "Yes" if any conflict involving three or more recognized nation states in the Middle East occurs before the end of the day on December 31, 2024, Eastern Time. For the purpose of this market, a "conflict" is defined as an active disagreement or clash, specifically involving military actions or explicit diplomatic disputes that are publicly acknowledged and reported by major global news outlets, such as BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN, or Reuters. A "nation state" refers to a sovereign state whose citizens or subjects are relatively homogeneous in factors such as language or common descent. The Middle East refers to the transcontinental region in Afro-Eurasia which generally includes Western Asia (except for Transcaucasia), all of Egypt (mostly in North Africa), Iran (in South Asia), and Turkey (partly in Southeast Europe).

The conflict must be independently confirmed and reported by at least two of the aforementioned news outlets for the market to resolve to "Yes". If two or fewer nation states are involved in a conflict, or if no such conflict occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve to "No".