🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What is the most likely future of Israel/Palestine: a one-state or two-state solution?
52
446
1.4K
2030
36%
🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Two-state solution
59%
🇮🇱 One-state solution, under the name Israel
1.8%
🇵🇸 One-state solution, under the name Palestine
4%
🤯 Any other solution that won't use the name Israel and/or Palestine

The two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict envisions an independent State of Palestine alongside the State of Israel, west of the Jordan River. The boundary between the two states is still subject to dispute and negotiation, but it is mainly based on the 1967 lines.

The one-state solution is a proposed approach to resolving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, according to which one state must be established between the River Jordan and the Mediterranean. Proponents of this solution advocate a single state in Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The term one-state reality describes the belief that the current situation in Israel/Palestine is de facto one-state. It is sometimes also called a bi-national state, owing to the hope that the state would be a homeland for both Jews and Palestinians.

*Borders may vary, but if two distinct nation states will be in existence will resolve as 1 - If one of the two current nation states won't survive as a recognised entity the market will resolve as 2 or 3. If none of the current nations will exist, resolves 4.



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This market (along with the Covid origin) makes me really appreciate Manifold users.

Well I hope this isn't a 54% chance of ethnic cleaning.

How does the market resolve if Israel just kinda... finishes up its genocide, invades or annexes Gaza and the West Bank, expels any remaining ethnic Palestinians living there, and the situation ends with a single ethnonationalist Israeli state for Jews only?

bought Ṁ10 of 🇮🇱 One-state solut... YES

@Lorxus That would clearly be a "One State: Israel" solution, except that such a solution would be too extreme for the other nations in the area to tolerate (even relatively moderate ones such as Egypt), so a multi-national war would certainly ensue (with a high likelihood that Israel would not receive support from the US) and could end up resulting in a single Palestinian State or No State.

That possibility seems extremely unlikely to me. Israel might attempt occupy Gaza like they did before 2005, but attempting to annex would be unpopular even in Israel and not be worthwhile for anybody involved.

@DanielParker I don't think that I have quite as much faith as you do in the international order - most of which is currently doing low-boiling genocides of one kind or another (and sure have done) - to come costfully stop a genocide, or as much faith as you do in the nations of the Middle East - famously fractious, often individually authoritarian, and with a disadvantage in hardware, military doctrine, and a few coalitional military losses against the state of Israel already on the board - to be able to come together and agree to stop Israel on behalf of a people that they have already largely abandoned to its fate.

But you do you!

Would this count as "One State: Israel" or "Any other solution" if Israel fully annexes the West Bank and Egypt fully annexes Gaza?

bought Ṁ10 of 🇮🇱 One-state solut... YES

@DanielParker If one state named Israel and one state named Palestine still exist it will resolve as 1

Does the state at the end of 2030 control the resolution of this question, or does it resolve after “the current war” or other landmark?

@DanPowell 2030 needs time to see how this situation develops

How would three states resolve? Israel, Gaza, West Bank?

@Quadrifold Then these options should add to <100%.

bought Ṁ30 of 🤯 Any other solutio... YES

@Quadrifold Ahhhh to me the last option means a more than two state solution, not that neither Israel or Palestine are used anywhere in the area. Just me?

bought Ṁ30 of 🤯 Any other solutio... YES

I think a major social uprising will create the fourth option.

How would you resolve it today?

@marketwise will resolve 1

@Quadrifold Interesting. The US government (and Germany, France, UK,…) would disagree. According to them there is no State of Palestine.

@marketwise for more than 100 countries it's recognised: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine
BTW I'm not talking about now, which is confused because in the middle of a war, the market is about the future, when the situation may be more clear.

bought Ṁ10 of 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Two-state ... YES

@Quadrifold Sufficiently clear now. Just wanted to understand why you mean by "a nation exists" as that can be a very subjective term.

@Quadrifold - I think the use of the word 'solution' implies that the problems of conflict in the region are, well, solved.

Two-state solution implies both that there are two states, and also that there is a solution.

If you'd hyptohetically be able to resolve this today, then maybe the word 'solution' should be cut from the answers, and the question/description rephrased as "At the end of 2024, what states will exist in the currently contested areas of Israel and Palestine.", if that is what you mean to ask.

And this one/two/other solution, is going to be the case in 2030. Else N/A?

@VAPOR Yes

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