🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What is the most likely future of Israel/Palestine: a one-state or two-state solution?

Question

The two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict envisions an independent State of Palestine alongside the State of Israel, west of the Jordan River. The boundary between the two states is still subject to dispute and negotiation, but it is mainly based on the 1967 lines.

The one-state solution is a proposed approach to resolving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, according to which one state must be established between the River Jordan and the Mediterranean. Proponents of this solution advocate a single state in Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The term one-state reality describes the belief that the current situation in Israel/Palestine is de facto one-state. It is sometimes also called a bi-national state, owing to the hope that the state would be a homeland for both Jews and Palestinians.

*Borders may vary, but if two distinct nation states will be in existence will resolve as 1 - If one of the two current nation states won't survive as a recognised entity the market will resolve as 2 or 3. If none of the current nations will exist, resolves 4.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 🇮🇱 One-state solution, under the name Israel, followed by 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Two-state solution and 🤯 Any other solution that won't use the name Israel and/or Palestine are most likely. See the market for live updates (78 traders, as of Jul 3, 2026).