Will GiveWell say that Dispensers for Safe Water are less than 6.5x as effective as GiveDirectly before 2024? | Manifold

Will GiveWell say that Dispensers for Safe Water are less than 6.5x as effective as GiveDirectly before 2024?

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resolved Jan 7

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The spirit of this question is if, before 2024, @SpacedOutMatt's criticism will be judged roughly correct. le will GiveWell reduce some kind of median number for long term effectiveness average from 7.4x to below 6.5x, before the end of next year? If ambiguous I will decide or just resolve ambiguous.

https://twitter.com/spacedoutmatt/status/1588223097945133057?s=46&t=Qh69DMp0w-avlgMInAHYQA

(GiveWell has a number of cost effectiveness numbers for each intervention ie it might be different for Kenya than anohter country. This isn't about that it is about Matt's specific criticism)

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Is there a reason this is not resolved yet?

I think this is currently quite unlikely to happen.

In the blog post linked below, they said they expect the Change My Mind post to update them down by 5-10%. 7.4-7.4*0.1= 6.66.

Further, it has not happened over the past 8 months since completion of the contest.

One of the Change Our Mind Winners for GiveWell was a re-analysis of Dispensers for Safe Water that estimated 5.7x as effective. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6cJM2pWH8dz9TnBRy/an-examination-of-givewell-s-water-quality-intervention-cost

Typop: GiveDirection should be GiveDirectly.

Will GiveWell say that Dispensers for Safe Water are less than 6.5x as effective as GiveDirection before 2024?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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