The spirit of this question is if, before 2024, @SpacedOutMatt's criticism will be judged roughly correct. le will GiveWell reduce some kind of median number for long term effectiveness average from 7.4x to below 6.5x, before the end of next year? If ambiguous I will decide or just resolve ambiguous.
https://twitter.com/spacedoutmatt/status/1588223097945133057?s=46&t=Qh69DMp0w-avlgMInAHYQA
(GiveWell has a number of cost effectiveness numbers for each intervention ie it might be different for Kenya than anohter country. This isn't about that it is about Matt's specific criticism)
One of the Change Our Mind Winners for GiveWell was a re-analysis of Dispensers for Safe Water that estimated 5.7x as effective. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6cJM2pWH8dz9TnBRy/an-examination-of-givewell-s-water-quality-intervention-cost