Will EAG: London happen as we expect?
40
237
แน€810
resolved Jun 2
Resolved
YES

This question has a 1 week grace period during which I can significantly alter the resolution criteria.

As we expect:

  • 300 - 2000 people

  • On 19 - 21st May

  • In Greater London

If you cause me to change these criteria, I'll give you some mana.

Close date updated to 2023-05-21 11:59 pm

Get แน€200 play money

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Created new market:

I'd add

  • in London proper, or in the City of London

sold แน€121 of YES

Selling on https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4JF39v548SETuMewp/update-on-spending-for-cea-run-events and because I'm not sure how Nathan resolves markets.

Condintions change, and the one on GiveWell recommeninding cash transfers resolved N/A.

bought แน€60 of YES

Really curious as to why people with more knowledge than me are giving such low odds! Giving them some mana by betting yes

It also doesn't look like its planned to be in the Barbican centre

bought แน€30 of NO

https://www.eaglobal.org/events/ea-global-london-2023/ sure doesn't look like it's happening in February

predicted NO

@NeelNanda (I don't actually know what happens to my trade if you edit the criteria to fix this - do I just lose money?)

@NeelNanda I used to be able to like your comment a lot and give you mana, but they seem to have removed that.

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung Sad. I guess I'll just take my Bayes points then