Will OpenAI be one of the top 5 most valuable companies before 2040?
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226
1k
2039
16%
chance

Based on Market Capitalisation, will OpenAI be in the top 5 most valuable companies at any point before 2040?

Based on speculation around their upcoming funding round in Dec 2023, OpenAI could be currently valued at $100 billion

Currently the top 5 is:

  1. Microsoft ~3T

  2. Apple ~2.8T

  3. Saudi Aramco ~2T

  4. Nvidia ~1.8T

  5. Google ~1.8T


OpenAI is rumored to be working on

  • Consumer Hardware (with Apple's Johnny Ive)

  • Search Engine

  • Custom AI Chips

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There is a less than 1/10000 chance that OpenAI is a top 5 most valuable company in any timeframe. It's not even clear at this point that LLM models have a business model. I wouldn't put 25% chance that OpenAI is profitable by 2040.

reposted

I don't get why this market is too low

If they merged with another company, or changed name (e.g. to change corporate structure) while still maintaining same employees and tech, would this resolve NO?

Good question! @Isaac228c

  1. Changed name — resolve yes

  2. Merge with another company — resolve N/A

I’m open to changing my mind on these if there are any compelling counter arguments people have.

I’m most iffy about resolution if there’s a merge, but that’s my current thinking

boughtṀ250NO

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