There is a less than 1/10000 chance that OpenAI is a top 5 most valuable company in any timeframe. It's not even clear at this point that LLM models have a business model. I wouldn't put 25% chance that OpenAI is profitable by 2040.

I don't get why this market is too low

If they merged with another company, or changed name (e.g. to change corporate structure) while still maintaining same employees and tech, would this resolve NO?

Good question! @Isaac228c

1. Changed name — resolve yes

2. Merge with another company — resolve N/A

I’m open to changing my mind on these if there are any compelling counter arguments people have.

I’m most iffy about resolution if there’s a merge, but that’s my current thinking

@elf I would think merger resolves no if the combined valuation is still below a top 5 company, yes if it’s somehow clear that OpenAI is enough of the valuation to be worth top 5 for its contribution to the combined valuation, and N/A otherwise

@Aelerinya why?