Will Spacex's Starship complete one full loop of the earth before July 2022?
Will Spacex's Starship complete one full loop of the earth before July 2022?
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101Ṁ741resolved Aug 4
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Starship is having its first orbital flight. It's currently scheduled for March 22 though it has been delayed before. https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-test-flight-faa-delay-march
The plan is to launch it atop Super Heavy and have it complete a loop of the earth before splashing down.
There might be time for multiple launches before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" on the day an intact Starship completes a loop of the earth, even if it something goes wrong on reentry or splashdown. If not, it will resolve "No".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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