Will Spacex's Starship complete one full loop of the earth before July 2022?
15
95
αΉ€101
resolved Aug 4
Resolved
NO
Starship is having its first orbital flight. It's currently scheduled for March 22 though it has been delayed before. https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-test-flight-faa-delay-march The plan is to launch it atop Super Heavy and have it complete a loop of the earth before splashing down. There might be time for multiple launches before resolution. This market will resolve to "Yes" on the day an intact Starship completes a loop of the earth, even if it something goes wrong on reentry or splashdown. If not, it will resolve "No".
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This should probably resolve.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/29/faa-delays-environmental-decision-on-spacexs-starship-launches-to-may.html Given this additional delay, and the 3/4 loop thing, seems like the price should be lower
bought αΉ€47 of NO
I'd love to lose my pants on this one.
bought αΉ€50 of NO
The plan for the first launch is for Starship not to enter orbit but to make a 3/4 loop around the Earth (launch from Texas, land near Hawaii) so at least 1 more launch will be necessary for this to be resolved YES in my opinion.
bought αΉ€5 of YES
https://manifold.markets/DavidLabrique/will-starship-reach-orbit-by-the-en

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