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Will Spacex's Starship complete one full loop of the earth before July 2022?
15
Ṁ101Ṁ741
resolved Aug 4
Resolved
NO
Starship is having its first orbital flight. It's currently scheduled for March 22 though it has been delayed before. https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-test-flight-faa-delay-march The plan is to launch it atop Super Heavy and have it complete a loop of the earth before splashing down. There might be time for multiple launches before resolution. This market will resolve to "Yes" on the day an intact Starship completes a loop of the earth, even if it something goes wrong on reentry or splashdown. If not, it will resolve "No".
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This should probably resolve.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/29/faa-delays-environmental-decision-on-spacexs-starship-launches-to-may.html Given this additional delay, and the 3/4 loop thing, seems like the price should be lower
I'd love to lose my pants on this one.
The plan for the first launch is for Starship not to enter orbit but to make a 3/4 loop around the Earth (launch from Texas, land near Hawaii) so at least 1 more launch will be necessary for this to be resolved YES in my opinion.
https://manifold.markets/DavidLabrique/will-starship-reach-orbit-by-the-en

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