Will the S&P 500 fall at least 3% on February 22, 2022?
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แน491resolved Feb 22
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This question resolves to YES if the S&P 500 falls by at least 3.0% from opening to closing price on February 22, 2022.
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So even if you assume the last 10 years of trading data was symmetrical around zero, a drop of 3% would still only be around 3% of trading days, so using a purely frequentist approach 25% should be way overvalued. Even if you used a Bayesian approach, the base rate of only around 3% of trading days is pretty hard to overcome, you would have to think that something really bad is all bug guaranteed and not priced in, like perhaps the Russia invasion, which...may already be priced in, so while a drop seems reasonable, 25% implied likelihood on 3% seems overvalued.
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